Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here | TED Talk | TED.com

Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here | TED Talk | TED.com:

Yes. It is here. The next generation of manufacturing.This is an absolutely spot on TED talk related to the world of manufacturing.

Everyone in the USA wines and complains about the flight of manufacturing from the USA. We don't make anything any more. That's not really true. We still make a lot of stuff, but the percentage of the workforce that makes stuff is a much, much lower percentage.

After 3 major industrial "revolutions" that have lasted 50-60 years each, we are due for another breakthrough technology/process/approach. It has now been about 50 years of slowing productivity. And the next revolution is already here.

Monsieur Olivier has very profound arguments for manufacturing to return onshore. One of his arguments is mass customization that is best done near to market (onshore), especially with the latest technologies.

There's another massive argument that pertains to the US, and not Europe (France). With new technologies of fracking & horizontal drilling, the US is swimming in cheap oil and (nat)gas. A huge proportion of manufacturing has to do with the cost of electricity -- cheap and clean(er) now with the major switches away from coal (toward NatGas and renewables). Transportation is cheap and more efficient. Plus, almost everything manufactured uses oil, particulates and natural gas. All plastics can, and should be manufactured at home.

We have been flaring about half of the NatGas in the US. All we have to do is set up an electric plant (run electric transmission lines) and/or a plastics factory next to the oil fields to capture some of this free energy.

Also, in 2015 and 2016, renewable energy has broken through that foggy glass floor. Without considering any of the externalities of coal, wind and solar are now cheaper for electricity. If the true costs of coal, considering all externalities are 2 to 3 times the price at the meter, then cheaper, better and cleaner energy is available at home. Far better in all respects than any factory in China or India.

Watch the assumptions and assertions in Olivier's presentation and see how much and how quickly it all comes to pass.
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Moore’s Law Shows Its Age - WSJ:

Moore’s Law Shows Its Age - WSJ:

This is a great story of 50 years of computing with geometric growth in speed and halfing price of costs.

Of course the cost of a factory has gotten a little bit pricey!...

Here is a sister article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-promise-at-technologys-powerful-heart-1429310535?KEYWORDS=moore%27s+law

There are some physical limitations that really kick is as very small levels, say 12 nanometers. Getting smaller at that point is no longer as "easy" as it has been.

Many people think that Moore's Law is going to Peter out. Other's like Ed Jordan (2010) in a Delphi Study found that the technology will likely need to change in the future. That the limitations of silicon will require a move to other technologies to reach that next BIG jump in smallness.

Jordan's 2010 study of computing technology experts found that,

"a technology to replace silicon dioxide would most likely
emerge sometime during the next 30 years" likely within 15 years... "the emerging
technology would mostly likely be biologic, probably protein based." (Hall & Jordan, 2013, p. 110)

Hall and Jordan (2013) talk about the next big leap in computing technologies and what impact that will have for computing intensive companies and those companies that make computing products.

It seems like about 50 years since we have had a truly disruptive technology innovation!...
Well, maybe 3-D printing... We will see.

References

Hall, E. B., & Jordan, E. A. (2013). Strategic and scenario planning using Delphi: Long-term and rapid planning utilizing the genius of crowds. In C. A. Lentz (Ed.), The refractive thinker: Vol. II. Research methodology (3^rd Ed.). (pp. 103-123) Las Vegas, NV: The Refractive Thinker® Press. 

Jordan, E. A. (2010). The semiconductor industry and emerging technologies: A study using a modified Delphi Method. (Document No. 3442759, University of Phoenix). ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, 184. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/853641948

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11 Inventions that wil, change the future....

11 disruptive technologies that could/should change the future.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101707755/page/1